The 100 Pathways Study: Preliminary Findings Report
City government decisions are important contributions to climate mitigation and adaptation. Municipal Climate Action Plans (CAPs) are sets of strategic investment and policy responses to climate change. These plans are driven by growing local impacts and national commitments. These have funding support from the federal government, administered through the Federation of Canadian Municipalities.[1]And supported by international frameworks such as the Paris Agreement and C40. The strategies outline how municipalities will reduce emissions, strengthen climate resilience, and integrate climate considerations into policies, infrastructure decisions, and long-term community planning.
Canadian municipal CAPs vary enormously in structure, ambition, and the range of operational areas covered.
The 100 Pathways Study uses an analysis framework and data model to assess CAPs for comparability. The goal is to analyse how cities are positioning their strategic priorities, the relative operational strengths, and look for patterns and alignments that emerge across the CAPs.
The following discussion will describe the analysis approach and framework, look at early patterns in the dataset, and use examples from some of the leading cities in the research to illustrate wider trends observed across the full 100-city sample. The findings are preliminary and can be read as signals and hypotheses rather than final conclusions.
Analysis Approach: Narrative plans and structured data
Municipal CAPs are arranged and presented in very different ways. Some are brief corporate strategies, while others are extensive community-wide emissions reduction roadmaps. For comparability, the 100 Pathways Study developed a standard summary.[2] For each plan to outline actions, themes, key targets, main initiatives, and identified areas of responsibility.
For every city, plan content is broken down into specific actions, and these are summarised into strategic theme areas. The Calgary CAP actions that relate to transport, for example, capture explicit targets for increased mode share for transit, walking, and wheeling, corporate fleet conversion, and the installation of at least 20 fast-charging stations. It also records the mechanisms Calgary intends to use—Green Fleet and Transit Fleet Emission Reduction strategies, EV-ready building codes, investments in the Green Line LRT—and the time horizon through 2026 for major transitions. Responsibilities are assigned to Fleet Management, Public Transit, Streets, and Climate & Environmental Management, and the expected outcomes spell out reductions in transportation emissions, improvements in air quality and public health, and relief of congestion.
[1] Green Municipal Fund (GMF): Since 2000, GMF has invested in over 2,100 municipal climate projects.
Local Leadership for Climate Adaptation (LLCA): A $530 million initiative for planning and projects.
National Adaptation Strategy: Sets goals and directs funding
[2] City | Theme | Key Targets & Metrics | Main Actions & Initiatives | Timeline Overview | Responsible Parties | Expected Benefits & Impacts.
The same structure is used for other strategic theme areas. Toronto’s actions for waste and circular economy, for example, include a 70 per cent residential waste diversion target by 2030, new organics processing facilities designed to generate renewable natural gas, and a set of circular-economy road map and single-use reduction strategies. Durham Region’s entries highlight a long-term waste management plan, a mixed waste pre-sort and anaerobic digestion facility, and a detailed set of benefits including diversion, methane reductions, and local RNG production.
In the 100 Pathways data set, each of these actions in the CAPs is summarised to make a comparable data point of what the city intends to do, which area of the City organization is assigned to lead it, and the business benefits it hopes to achieve.
Ten Strategic Themes
To achieve an integrated assessment of the CAPs, the specific CAP action items are grouped and mapped to ten strategic theme areas.[1]:
- Adaptation & Resilience
- Air Quality & Co-benefits
- Energy Systems
- Governance & Planning
- Finance & Economics
- Food Systems
- Engagement & Equity
- Transport
- Urban Planning
- Waste & Circular Economy.
A set of actions (strategic plan, master plan, etc) within a CAP can be associated with several themes. Halifax’s commitments to retrofit buildings by 2040, develop a coastal adaptation strategy, create resilience hubs, and install zero-emissions back-up power in critical infrastructure all sit in Adaptation & Resilience, and those actions also intersect with Urban Planning, Energy Systems, and Equity. Waterloo Region’s work on 15-minute neighbourhoods, compact growth, and active transportation corridors sits in the Urban Planning and Transport areas. Vancouver’s plan to convert steam heat networks to renewable energy and build out neighbourhood energy systems is coded under Energy Systems, but also interacts with Urban Planning and Finance strategic theme areas.
This thematic structure allows the study to explore questions such as: How much relative emphasis do cities place on transportation compared to food systems? Which themes show the most consensus across the country, and which areas are patchy or show opportunities for further development?
[1] These are aligned with the C40 Cities framework which many cities use as set of planning resources.
Evaluation Framework
The 100 Pathways study evaluates the quality and seriousness of the strategy elements put forward in the CAPs. A five-dimensional evaluation framework is applied to each strategic theme area, and a scoring method is used from 1.0 (very weak) to 5.0 (very strong):
- Robustness assesses whether the actions are specific, costed, and operationally realistic.
- Accountability considers whether responsibilities and reporting structures are clearly assigned.
- Timeliness looks at the clarity and credibility of timelines and milestones.
- Comprehensiveness assesses whether the actions within the theme encompass the full range of opportunities in the area.
- Effectiveness judges whether the package of actions is plausibly capable of delivering meaningful emissions reductions or resilience benefits.
Durham Region’s governance actions, for example, score highly on robustness and accountability because they include a formal corporate carbon budget, a dedicated Carbon Analyst, director-level committees, annual climate update reports, and structured integration with business planning. Another Ontario municipality’s work on food systems, by contrast, has no explicit targets or actions, which in this framework is given a low score.
The 100 Pathways data and evaluation model combines thematic mapping and scoring to show where cities have detailed, well-structured strategies and where they have broad aspirations with little operational substance.
Strategic Emphasis across the 100 cities
Once plans are structured and scored, broad patterns can be seen in the full dataset. The data set covers cities of very different sizes and contexts—from major metropolitan centres like Toronto, Vancouver, and Calgary to regional governments such as Waterloo and relatively smaller centres such as Ajax and Prince Albert. There are recurring aspects, similarities, and wide variations across the plans.
Across the 100 cities, energy systems and transport stand out as the most consistently emphasized themes. Almost every city has at least a partial narrative about how it will decarbonize its energy supply or transform its mobility systems. Larger cities tend to have increasingly detailed and ambitious frameworks. Toronto’s net-zero pathway is anchored in a phased elimination of fossil gas in buildings, an expansion of district energy, and a partnership with Toronto Hydro on renewables and storage. Vancouver’s Renewable City Strategy commits to 100 per cent renewable energy by 2050, backed by concrete changes to heat networks, neighbourhood energy systems, and landfill gas capture. Calgary has already procured renewable electricity for its corporate operations until 2026 and is investing in new solar parks and district-energy planning.
Transport shows a similar pattern. Halifax intends to achieve one hundred per cent new vehicle sales as electric by 2030 while electrifying its municipal fleet and expanding transit and active transportation infrastructure. Toronto’s targets tie transport to bike lanes, fleet electrification, and a dense mesh of public charging infrastructure. Waterloo Region and Winnipeg both set out multi-decade pathways that combine redesigned street networks, public transit investments, micro-mobility, and EV strategies, with explicit mode-share and emissions-reduction trajectories.
These examples are consistent with the broader pattern seen in the 100-city dataset. The themes of energy and adaptation tend to attract some of the clearest targets and strongest planning detail. Preliminary correlation analysis suggests that larger cities and selected mid-sized centres also embed the related actions in more robust governance and financing structures.
Some thematic areas are much more uneven. Food systems are a striking case. In cities like Vancouver and Waterloo Region, food is treated as an integral part of the climate story. Vancouver tracks the number of community gardens, farmers’ markets, urban farms, food hubs, and other “food assets,” aiming for a fifty percent increase by 2020 and linking local food access to reduced emissions and community resilience. Waterloo Region explicitly connects agricultural land protection, methane capture from manure, plant-based diet promotion, and local agricultural processing to its climate goals, and positions farmers and food businesses as key partners in the regional transition. Calgary’s food resilience work, which includes a dedicated resilience plan, farm stands, and land-use amendments for urban agriculture, also reflects this integrative approach.
In other municipalities, food topics do not appear in the set of actions. Some of the larger regional municipalities in Ontario, for instance, do not explicitly address food systems at all, even though the region may have significant agricultural land and food-sector activity. Several smaller municipalities in the wider dataset show similar gaps. This unevenness supports one of the findings in the 100 Pathways Study: that while the role of energy and transport in climate policy is now widely accepted, the role of food is still emerging and often treated as an optional add-on rather than a core driver.
Air quality displays another kind of dispersion. In places like Vancouver, air quality is identified as a clear, explicit target, with metrics relating to compliance with standards for ozone, particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, and sulphur dioxide. Vancouver connects its EV infrastructure strategy, pump labelling for GHG and air-quality impacts, and close cooperation with regional air-quality agencies directly to these goals. Durham Region’s low-carbon pathway similarly foregrounds local air quality and public-health co-benefits, quantifying energy-cost savings and employment impacts alongside cleaner air. Halifax, Winnipeg, and a number of other cities, on the other hand, treat air quality primarily as a co-benefit of transport, buildings, or energy actions, without stand-alone air-quality targets or programs. In the full dataset, this translates into variability in the emphasis on air quality. Nearly all CAP actions generate air-quality improvements indirectly, but only some of the CAPs directly name and track these benefits with intention and structured goals.
The Waste & Circular Economy category sits somewhere between these extremes. For some cities, waste is handled through classic diversion and landfill-management strategies. Winnipeg focuses on organic waste diversion, extended producer responsibility, and feasibility studies for integrated resource recovery. Ottawa emphasises improved landfill gas capture, leachate management, and the development of a long-term solid-waste master plan. Other municipalities push further into circular-economy territory. Calgary’s waste strategy includes goals to reduce methane from landfills, significantly increase diversion, and generate renewable natural gas and electricity from more than 110,000 tonnes of diverted organics each year. Durham Region’s mixed waste pre-sort and anaerobic digestion facility promises to produce four to six million cubic metres of RNG annually while also serving provincial waste-diversion goals. Across the 100-city dataset, waste emerges as a near-universal theme, but there is significant variability in the depth of integration with energy, economic development, and circular-materials strategies.
Governance & Finance and the politics of delivery
One of the clearest trends visible in the data set is the emergence of new governance and financial tools designed to move climate action from the margins of municipal policy into the centre of decision-making.
Several cities in the sample are experimenting with carbon budgets that operate alongside or within traditional financial budgets. Toronto has adopted a cumulative carbon budget—178 megatonnes to 2040, aligned with its net-zero by 2040 target, and uses this as a constraint for major decisions. Durham Region is building a corporate carbon budget management framework with five-year targets and annual reporting, supported by a specialist carbon analyst role and cross-departmental leadership committees. Ottawa is piloting corporate and community carbon budgets as part of its Energy Evolution strategy. Across the wider dataset, a number of municipalities reference carbon budgeting or carbon-budget concepts, while, for some, practical implementation steps and specific carbon budget details are missing.
The notion of a climate lens is spreading in parallel. Calgary applies a climate lens to investments and budget decisions and is developing a financing toolkit that connects municipal spending with external sources such as the Canada Infrastructure Bank and Federation of Municipalities funds. Ottawa embeds a climate lens in its Official Plan and master plans, influencing land-use, transportation, and infrastructure together. Halton Region is exploring climate considerations in all council reports and internal policies, while Winnipeg is incorporating climate sections into major council documents and creating a Climate Action Reserve Fund to back implementation.
Finance and economics as a theme is shifting from a simple question of “how do we pay for this?” to a broader assessment of long-term costs and benefits. Halifax’s HalifACT analysis estimates twenty-two billion dollars of investment over thirty years with a net benefit of 8.7 billion dollars, driven by avoided energy costs and health benefits. Toronto frames its net-zero pathway as a job-creation and economic-diversification strategy, estimating 1.2 million net job-years and significant household energy savings by mid-century. Durham Region and other municipalities use lifecycle costing, internal carbon prices, and dedicated climate reserve funds to manage fiscal risk while leveraging external funding.
In evaluation terms, these governance and finance innovations tend to score highly on accountability and robustness, and they help differentiate cities that have integrated climate into their ongoing decision-making as distinct from those that rely mainly on project-based commitments. Early analysis suggests that carbon budgets, climate lenses, and dedicated funds are strongly associated with higher overall scores for plan strength, even though the exact design of these instruments varies widely.
Equity, engagement, and the social side of climate action
The Engagement & Equity thematic area is the extent of public trust and perceived fairness in climate action. Numerous cities have invested heavily in consultation processes and advisory channels and ensured representation from diverse groups and interests in the planning. Some analysis shows that the equity and engagement aspects of CAPs are further opportunities to develop.[1]. Climate actions that ignore equity and engagement are associated with much higher implementation risk. Many of the CAPs include discussions about how climate actions are a social transition.
Some of the clearest examples in the dataset come from cities that link climate programs directly to specific communities and social outcomes. Halifax makes a just transition a core principle of its plan, with a focus on Mi’kmaq and African Nova Scotian communities, neighbourhood climate planning, and targeted support for vulnerable households during retrofits or emergencies. Toronto expands its Climate Action Grants and Neighbourhood Champions programs, develops Indigenous Climate Action Grants, and builds a youth innovation hub, while also tracking equity indicators for climate programs. Waterloo Region funds a climate justice committee, works with Mennonite and Indigenous communities, and establishes metrics to measure progress on reducing inequities. Calgary’s climate work includes a dedicated energy-poverty reduction program and a climate equity toolkit designed to guide decision-making.
Other municipalities are further along on this journey. Durham Region’s engagement efforts focus heavily on institutional partners and large energy-using organizations through the Durham Strategic Energy Alliance, though equity considerations are starting to appear in its financing strategies. Halton Region is integrating equity, diversity, and inclusion teams into climate governance and exploring how Indigenous knowledge can inform climate work, but many of the concrete actions remain to be defined. In several smaller municipalities in the 100-city dataset, the extent of investment in public engagement ranges from simple generic commitment to consultation to well-structured, equity-oriented, robust strategies.
Preliminary results suggest that wealthier or larger municipalities may be more likely to have formal equity and engagement programs, particularly those that require dedicated staff and long-term funding. At the same time, some mid-sized centres succeed in a strong equity focus with partners and community organizations involved.
Interpreting the patterns: size, wealth, and provincial context
A recurring pattern in the 100 City dataset is a weak positive correlation between city size and the boldness and breadth of CAPs. The largest cities—Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, Ottawa, Montreal, and others in the full dataset—tend to have the most extensive thematic coverage, the most detailed energy and transport strategies, and the most complex governance arrangements. They are more likely to use tools like carbon budgets, climate lenses, and dedicated climate funds, and to quantify economic and health co-benefits at scale. Some mid-sized cities[2], such as Durham, Waterloo, and Halifax, reflect the overall pattern of the role of administrative capacity associated with political resolve for bold plans.
[1] https://www.vrm.ca/en/lequite-dans-les-plans-climat-comparaison-entre-vancouver-et-montreal-2/
[2] There is a tendency for Regional Municipalities in Ontario to have CAPs with a wide range of climate actions, potentially reflecting capacities of larger organizations.
Wealth, interestingly, behaves differently. High-income cities are certainly present among the climate leaders, but when the dataset is sliced by themes such as adaptation and food systems, there are signs of an inverse relationship: some wealthier centres devote more effort to engagement, consultation and energy programs, while investment in food systems or some forms of adaptation is stronger in places where agricultural or climate vulnerability is more visible and immediate. Waterloo Region’s focus on rural land protection and methane capture, or the prominence of coastal adaptation in Halifax, reflects local risk profiles as much as income.
The provincial context is another strong shaping factor. British Columbia municipalities operate within a provincial framework that long emphasized carbon pricing, energy regulation, and municipal climate action, which helps explain why Vancouver’s plan has such a mature mix of targets, governance tools, and implementation programs. Ontario’s two-tier municipal structure, by contrast, sometimes splits responsibilities among regional governments and lower-tier municipalities.[1], which influences where transport, land-use, and waste strategies are anchored. Durham, Halton, and Waterloo all show strong corporate action at the regional level, but some community-wide strategies depend on coordination with local municipalities. Quebec and British Columbia, in the wider dataset, show some of the strongest alignment in terms of thematic outlook, even though their governance models differ significantly.
Where does this leave the 100 Pathways Study?
Municipal Climate Action Plans are key planning instruments toward reduced emissions, strengthened resilience, and climate-aligned community planning. The preliminary review of CAPs shows that strategies vary widely in structure, ambition, and operational breadth. The 100 Pathways Study introduces some comparability by applying an analysis framework and data model. This allows for an assessment of how cities relatively position their priorities, how operational strengths cluster, and what patterns or alignments can be seen across the full national sample.
In the preliminary review of the dataset, some broad tendencies appear. Energy systems and transportation are highly prevalent in nearly all municipal climate strategies. Governance innovations positioned as tools that strengthen long-term implementation capacity (including carbon budgets, climate lenses, and dedicated climate funds) are prioritised in many of the large centres and some of the leading mid-sized centres.
At the same time, the uneven treatment of equity and engagement, and the pronounced variation in themes such as food systems, air quality, and circular economy, reveal where municipal climate planning is more mature in some areas than others. This may reflect differing mandates, resources, political environments, and institutional histories.
The next phase of the 100 Pathways Study will involve second-pass scoring, more formal testing of correlations, and qualitative exploration of representative cities, alongside the development of interactive visual dashboards that make municipal strengths and gaps easier to interpret. So far, the analysis shows some early guideposts to provide understanding of the different ways that municipalities are using Climate Action Plans to address climate change.
[1] In Ontario, both Regional Municipalities and associated lower-tier municipalities may complete CAPs with coordinated or overlapping (mostly complementary) actions.