The sixth assessment report (AR6) released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on March 19, 2023 is a hefty serving of harsh realities and a call for policymakers and business leaders to act on climate mitigation and adaptation. The report warns of rising seas, vicious storms, mass migration, drought, and other aspects of the ongoing climate crisis. In the coming years, Canadian leaders will need to make tough investment and strategy decisions to mitigate the effects of climate change. The report challenges them to take a new frame of thinking when it comes to the role of government, public opinion and even of Canada’s place in the world of energy transition.
The scale of the crisis and the long-term implications of the report’s findings are not for the faint of heart. The AR6 report definitely pushes you out of your comfort zone. It challenges assumptions about governance and the role of government in society. It forces us to face the reality that Canada’s future looks different than most of us imagine; we’ll be living in a country that does not rely on fossil fuels.
The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Executive Director, Fatih Birol, notes that “Canada’s abundance of clean electricity and innovative spirit can help the country transition to a sustainable energy system and achieve its ambitious climate goals”. However, achieving these goals will require political will, coordinated action, and innovative solutions.
CANADA’S SIGNIFICANT ROLE
Canada has a unique role to play in global efforts to address the climate crisis. Despite its relatively small size, Canada’s investments and regulations have far-reaching impacts. While some may argue that larger economies should take up more responsibility for emissions reductions, Canada’s per-capita emissions remain among the worst in the G7 economies. In the past five years, Canada’s oil exports and investments in fossil fuel infrastructure have increased, and the coal and oil mined in Canada and exported contribute to the world’s GHG problem even though they “count” for other countries’ CO2 emissions.
Despite these challenges, Canada also has tremendous potential for transitioning quickly to clean energy. 75% of Canada’s electricity needs are currently met by clean energy sources (electricityrates.ca). Most Canadians support strong green policies, and leaders must capitalize on this support to implement effective emissions reduction strategies.
The AR6 Report prioritizes the need for political commitment, governance capacity, and sound financial decision-making to address climate change. Leaders will need to cooperate across multiple policy domains and work collaboratively to develop and enforce regulations that support deep emissions reductions, energy transition and climate resilience. This is a long-term effort that requires a continued government involvement and public support.
PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS
The report also underscores the importance of building public confidence in institutions. Recent surveys show that Canadians have a persistent confidence in institutions, and leaders must leverage this trust to drive change. Given then trends for populism elsewhere, there’ reason for vigilance so that governments have the support to continue working to meaningfully address the climate crisis.
One of the basic highlights of the report is the warning that the world is likely to exceed the 1.5-degree Celsius target within the next few years. AR6 Report puts it as, “every increment of global warming will intensify multiple and concurrent hazards, and vulnerable communities will bear the brunt of the impacts”.
“C.6 Effective climate action is enabled by political commitment, well-aligned multilevel governance, institutional frameworks, laws, policies and strategies and enhanced access to finance and technology. Clear goals, coordination across multiple policy domains, and inclusive governance processes facilitate effective climate action. Regulatory and economic instruments can support deep emissions reductions and climate resilience if scaled up and applied widely. Climate resilient development benefits from drawing on diverse knowledge.” (IPCC AR6)
In the context of the disaster, the AR6 Report mentions the increasing need for international cooperation, goal setting, and follow-up with domestic regulations. It is hard to believe that these things are the corner stone to ensuring a stable future. But here we are.
THE ENERGY TRANSITION
In order to take up the challenge of addressing the country’s poor record on CO2 emissions, Canadian leaders have to imagine a future with clean energy and take bold action to transition away from fossil fuels. Not easy. The stakes are high. This is a tall order by any accounting.
As of 2021, Canada’s per capita carbon dioxide emissions were 16.9 metric tons, which is among the highest in the world (Our World in Data). The country’s oil exports and investments in fossil fuel infrastructure continue to climb, despite global efforts (and efforts here in Canada) to shift to cleaner energy sources. However, Canada also has significant potential to transition to clean energy, given its access to cheap solar, wind, and well-developed hydro and nuclear technologies.
To address the climate crisis effectively, Canadian leaders must take a long-term perspective and make sustained efforts to reduce emissions and build resilience. The work will involve multiple policy domains and international agreements to achieve the emissions reductions targets. This requires a focus on building political will, developing enforceable regulations, creative financial incentives, and sustained public support.
The IPCC AR6 report presents a serious challenge to Canadian decision-makers. It warns of the horrible consequences of the ongoing climate crisis and underscores the need for urgent action to mitigate its effects. While Canada has a poor record on CO2 emissions and transition from oil, it also has tremendous potential to transition to clean energy and play a leading role in global financial and technology efforts to address climate change.
Canadian leaders will increasingly be called on to manage regulations and investments in a part of the world that has a significant role to play in climate change. They will be positioned to champion international agreements and targets while simultaneously amping up the confidence people have in their governments. It’s the new challenge for leadership.
